TEXT I
JOBS AT HIGH RISK
It is an invisible force that goes by many names.
Computerization. Automation. Artificial intelligence.
Technology. Innovation. And, everyone's favorite,
ROBOTS.
[5] Whatever name you prefer, some form of it has
been stimulating progress and killing jobs — from tailors
to paralegals — for centuries. But this time is different:
nearly half of American jobs today could be automated ∈
"a decade or two". The question is: which half?
[10] Another way of posing the same question is:
Where do machines work better than people? Tractors
are more powerful than farmers. Robotic arms are
stronger and more tireless than assembly-line workers.
But ∈ the past 30 years, software and robots have
[15] succeeded replacing a particular kind of occupation: the
average-wage, middle-skill, routine-heavy worker,
especially ∈ manufacturing and office administration.
Indeed, it's projected that the next wave of
computer progress will continue to endanger human
[20] work where it already has: manufacturing, administrative
support, retail, and transportation. Most remaining
factory jobs are "likely to diminish over the next
decades". Cashiers, counter clerks, and telemarketers
are similarly endangered. On the other hand, health care
[25] workers, people responsible for our safety, and
management positions are the least likely to be
automated.
The next big thing
[30] We might be on the edge of an innovating
moment ∈ robotics and artificial intelligence. Although
the past 30 years have reduced the \middle, high- and
low-skill jobs have actually increased, as if protected
from the invading armies of robots by their own moats.
[35] Higher-skill workers have been protected by a kind of
social-intelligence moat. Computers are historically good
at executing routines, but they're bad at finding patterns,
communicating with people, and making decisions,
which is what managers are paid to do. This is why
[40] some people think managers are, for the moment, one of
the largest categories immune to the fast wave of AI.
Meanwhile, lower-skill workers have been
protected by the Moravec moat. Hans Moravec was a
futurist who pointed out that machine technology copied
[45] a savant infant: Machines could do long math equations
instantly and beat anybody ∈ chess, but they can't
answer a simple question or walk up a flight of stairs. As
a result, not skilled work done by people without much
education (like home health care workers, or fast-food
[50] attendants) have been saved, too.
The human half
In the 19th century, new manufacturing
technology replaced what was then skilled labor. In the
[55] second half of the 20th century, however, software
technology took the place of median-salaried office work.
The first wave showed that machines are better at
assembling things. The second showed that machines
are better at organizing things. Now data analytics and
[60] self-driving cars suggest they might be better at patternrecognition
and driving. So what are we better at?
The safest industries and jobs are dominated by
managers, health-care workers, and a super-category
that includes education, media, and community service.
[65] One conclusion to draw from this is that humans are,
and will always be, superior at working with, and caring
for other humans. In this light, automation doesn't make
the world worse. Far from it: it creates new opportunities
for human creativity.
[70] But robots are already creeping into diagnostics
and surgeries. Schools are already experimenting with
software that replaces teaching hours. The fact that
some industries have been safe from automation for the
last three decades doesn't guarantee that they'll be safe
[75] for the next one.
It would be anxious enough if we knew exactly
which jobs are next ∈ line for automation. The truth is
scarier. We don't really have a clue.
(Adapted from http://www.businessinsider.com/robots-overtakingamerican- jobs-2014-1)
The expression “wave of computer progress” (lines 18 and 19) has the same idea as
