Questão 34

by Robert J. Samuelson

Newsweek May 10, 2010

This just in: Caterpillar – the maker of earthmoving equipment, including bulldozers and monster mining trucks – reported firstquarter profits of 55 cents a share, up from a loss of 19 cents a year earlier. More important, the improvement stemmed heavily from surging demand in developing countries. Although  machinery sales dropped in North America and Europe, they rose by 40 percent in Asia and 7 percent in Latin America. With more exports, Caterpillar is hiring again. The U.S. job increase, though only 600, reverses the roughly 10,000 layoffs since late 2008 that had reduced CAT’s American workforce to about 43,000.

What is significant about this is that it suggests a “rebalancing” of the global economy. The world needs an engine of growth to replace freespending American consumers and their appetite for other countries’ exports. Greece’s problems are a harbinger; advanced countries can no longer borrow their way to prosperity. Hence, rebalancing. Developing countries, especially in Asia, that pursued exportled growth would shift to domestic spending. The debtridden American and European economies would rely more on exports to these countries. Almost everyone, even China, favors rebalancing in principle. But can it happen?

By some measures, it seems underway. China, India, Brazil, and many “emerging market” countries escaped the worst consequences of the Great Recession. Their economies are generally growing much faster than ours (almost 6.5 percent annually in 2010 and 2011, compared with a 2.9 percent rate for the United States, reckons the International Monetary Fund). This boosts their demand for the advanced equipment, instruments, and basic industrial supplies (chemicals, coal) that constitute two thirds of U.S. exports. Of Boeing’s 3,350jet backlog, three quarters (77 percent) will go to foreign customers.

Domestic spending is strengthening in these countries, as incomes and tastes expand. In 2002 consumption spending in developing countries  was 23 percent of the world total, and the U.S. share was 36 percent, estimate economists David Hensley and Joseph Lupton of JPMorgan Chase. By 2008, developing countries were 32 percent, the United States 28 percent.

This is classic economic catchup, as poor countries adopt the products and technologies of rich countries. It’s a twostep process, says economist Arvind Subramanian of the Peterson Institute. “First, countries have to cross the Hobbesian threshold” – that’s after philosopher Thomas Hobbes (1588–1679), who declared that life without strong government is “nasty, brutish, and short.” Governments must provide security and sanitation, create some rule of law, and establish protections for property, says Subramanian. Otherwise, the stability doesn’t exist to pursue step two: allowing markets to work; practicing economic virtues (controlling inflation and government budgets).

Parts of Africa and Latin America still haven’t crossed the Hobbesian threshold, says Subramanian. But elsewhere, many countries (China and India, most spectacularly) have reaped the rewards of moving to step two.

So is rebalancing going according to script? Well, not necessarily. True, massive trade imbalances have dropped sharply. The U.S. trade deficit fell from $760billionin2006to$379 billion in 2009; China’s trade surplus also contracted. But these changes mostly reflect the Great Recession. As the slump worsened, people and companies stopped buying. Global trade collapsed  and with it the size of imbalances. But as the recovery has strengthened, trade and imbalances are growing again.

What’s missing is a sizable revaluation of China’s currency, the renminbi. Fred Bergsten of the Peterson Institute thinks the renminbi may be 40 percent undervalued against the dollar. This gives China’s exports a huge advantage and underpins its trade surpluses. Other Asian countries fear altering their currencies if China doesn’t change first. “They’ll lose ground to China,” notes Hensley. The European Union, Brazil, and India all feel threatened by the renminbi. President Obama wants U.S. exports to double in five years. That’s probably unrealistic, but it’s impossible if the renminbi isn’t revalued.

“It’s the single most important tool we have to increase exports and decrease imports,” says Scott Paul of the Alliance for American Manufacturing, a businesslabor group. True. The global economy is at a crossroads. Will it muddle through? Or will every nation’s desire to maximize its own production and employment unleash selfdefeating protectionism and nationalism?

by Daniel Gross

Newsweek June 18, 2010

"Look out for the Brazilians and the Indians," the CEO of a large Fortune 500 consumer products company told me at a lunch a few months ago. And he wasn't talking about the World Cup. He was responding to a question about where the next wave of foreign investors  in U.S. assets will come from. A few years ago, dealmakers were abuzz – and many analysts were fearful – about the prospect of sovereign wealth funds from the Persian Gulf and China shifting their strategies from buying U.S. government bonds to purchasing U.S. companies. Since many of those bubbleera deals exploded, the sovereign wealth funds have become much less aggressive about entering the U.S. market. But now there are signs that the Brazilians may be picking up some of the slack. Last week, Brazilian meatpacker Marfrig agreed to acquire Keystone Foods for $1.25 billion. As a result, the Brazilian firm will now become a key supplier to allAmerican fastfood chains like Subway and McDonald's. According to Thomson Reuters, there have been eight transactions since last October involving Brazilian firms purchasing U.S. companies or assets from U.S. companies. And there are likely to be more.

Brazilian firms are in a good position to start investing. Driven by a rising middle class, robust commodity markets, and trade with China, Brazil's domestic economy powered through the economic crisis and the recession. Its banking system, which puts directors on the hook for losses, didn't melt down in an orgy of speculation. The country's large firms have healthy balance sheets, and the Brazilian currency has appreciated against the dollar. And like Brazilian soccer players, who ply their trade in every league around the world, Brazilian executives are increasingly comfortable going global. A KPMG survey of executives from 17 countries that was released in March found that "Brazilian businessmen are  the most optimistic in the world regarding the behaviour of global economy next year." The acquisitions have centered mostly on largescale, oldeconomy industries – the type that first gained national scale in the United States on the backs of the railroads in the 1890s: beer, meatpacking, oil, chemicals. InBev, the BelgianBrazilian beer company, led the way in 2008 by acquiring AnheuserBusch. JBS, the giant Brazilian meatpacker, bought Pilgrim's Pride for $800 million last fall and then in January 2010 acquired Swift for $1.4 billion. It now has a very large presence in the United States. The same month, Petrobras, Brazil's oil behemoth, bought a chunk of Devon Energy's stake in the Gulf of Mexico's Cascade field. In February, Brazilian resin producer Braskem acquired the polypropylene business of Sunoco Chemicals for $350 million. In April, Banco do Brasil, the big bank largely owned by Brazil's government, which has outposts in Miami, New York, and Washington, D.C., received permission from the Federal Reserve to set up retail banking operations in the United States. "We will open 15 new branches in the U.S. over the next five years and we are also considering acquisitions of small local banks to build our operation," Allan Toledo, vice president for international affairs at Banco do Brasil, told Dow Jones. 

notion of a Russian firm buying the ICQ instantmessaging service from AOL. Yes, some foreign policy analysts have worried that Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is too cozy with Iran and Venezuela, but nobody has fretted about wellrun Brazilian conglomerates owning wellknown U.S. brands. That's a good thing. For America needs Brazilian businesses – and businesses from all over the world – to take a new look at the U.S. market. For all its problems, the United States generally remains the largest single recipient of foreign direct investment in the world. Investments by foreign firms played an important role in last year's recovery. And with the domestic companies and investors deleveraging and hoarding cash, foreign direct investment is vital to fund growth and expansion. Wall Street bankers should begin to learn some Portuguese phrases.

Assinale a alternativa que contém o referente contextual das palavras sublinhadas nos títulos abaixo: