DISTANT PEAK CAR
Carmakers worry that one day demand for cars will stop rising. But that is a long way off.
[1] IN 1924 FORD ran an advertisement headlined “His First Car”, urging fathers to buy their teenage sons their
first set of wheels. The idea caught on. For boys, especially, learning to drive became an essential part of growing up.
By the late 1970s 86% of American 18-year-olds—of both sexes—had a driving licence. But then the trend went into
reverse: researchers at the University of Michigan found that ∈2010 only 61% of 18-year-old Americans had licences.
[5] Other rich countries are going the same way. Teenagers are showing less interest ∈ cars as they turn their attention
to smartphones and social networking.
This is a worry for carmakers, who are wondering where their future customers are going to come from. In the
two decades to 2008 the number of miles driven by Americans ∈ their 20s fell by 8%. In Britain a study for the RAC
Foundation, a transport-research body, found a 30% drop among men ∈ the same age group between 1996 and
[10] 2006.
One reason for concern is that half the world’s population now lives ∈ towns and cities, which have only so
much for cars. Even ∈ rapidly growing car markets such as China, city governments ∈ the more prosperous
parts of the country are beginning to restrict new car registrations and invest heavily ∈ public transport.
Young urban residents may also be meeting up less often ∈ person, thanks to social-networking sites that let
[15] them keep ∈ touch digitally. So they have less need for a car, and when they do need one they turn to car clubs,
which offer rental by the hour ∈ their neighbourhood, and to car-sharing schemes. In particular, the generation who
came of age after 2000, the so-called “millennials”, express a preference for having access to rather than owning cars.
But some of that may be just talk. In a survey by McKinsey, American millennials said they expected to use car clubs
∈ the future, but when asked if owning a car would remain an important status symbol, they were much more likely to
[20] answer “yes” than older consumers.
Economic factors, too, work against car ownership. Sheryl Connelly, Ford’s “global trends and futuring”
manager, notes that a few decades ago teenagers ∈America often got free driving lessons at school, but now they
may have to pay up to $800 for them before they can sit their test. The cost of adding a young driver to the family’s
car-insurance policy too has risen sharply, she says. In Britain the RAC Foundation study found that fewer young men
[25] are driving because their employers have cut back on providing company cars.
However, studies also show a marked rise ∈ the proportion of elderly people with driving licences. Baby
boomers pretty much all learned to drive, and now that they are beginning to retire they expect to continue motoring.
The development of assisted driving, followed one day by fully automated cars, will allow them to stay mobile for much
longer.
[30] What may be happening ∈ rich countries is a one-off shift ∈ the timing of people’s driving careers, so that they
start later but then continue well into old age. This may be no bad thing for carmakers. It has long been an open secret
∈ the business that cars are advertised as being for the young but are bought mainly by the middle-aged with the
necessary disposable income. In America the average Mercedes buyer is ∈ his late 50s, and even the supposedly
youth-oriented MINI Cooper is typically bought by people ∈ their early 40s. The world’s biggest car markets—China,
[35] North America and Europe—are all greying.
So it is not clear that declining car ownership among young urbanites will have more than a marginal effect on
overall car sales. Besides, argues Renault-Nissan’s Mr Ghosn, for most people “their car is more than an object.” For
some it is an extension of their home, he says, and most people would rather not share their home. For others it is
their pet, and who wants to share their pet?
[40] All ∈ all, “peak car”—the point at which worldwide demand for cars will stop rising—still seems quite a long way
off. In the rich world some of the economic factors that have deterred young people from taking up driving will fade
away: as cars become increasingly self-piloting and accident rates fall, insurance costs should decrease, and ∈ time
there will be little or no need to take expensive lessons.
The Economist, April 20th, 2013.
De acordo com o texto, a expressão “a long way off” (no subtítulo e nas linhas 40 e 41) pode ser entendida como
