T E X T
Children set for more climate disasters than their grandparents, research shows
People born today will suffer many
times more extreme heatwaves and
other climate disasters over their
lifetimes than their grandparents,
[05] research has shown. The study is the
first to assess the contrasting
experience of climate extremes by
different age groups and starkly
highlights the intergenerational
[10] injustice posed by the climate crisis.
The analysis showed that a child
born in 2020 will endure an average of
30 extreme heatwaves in their lifetime,
even if countries fulfil their current
[15] pledges to cut future carbon emissions.
That is seven times more heatwaves
than someone born in 1960. Today’s
babies will also grow up to experience
twice as many droughts and wildfires
[20] and three times more river floods and
crop failures than someone who is 60
years old today.
However, rapidly cutting global
emissions to keep global heating to
[25] 1.5C would almost halve the heatwaves
today’s children will experience, while
keeping under 2C would reduce the
number by a quarter.
A vital task of the UN’s Cop26
[30] climate summit in Glasgow in November
is to deliver pledges of bigger emissions
cuts from the most polluting countries
and climate justice will be an important
element of the negotiations. Developing
[35] countries, and the youth strike
protesters who have taken to the
streets around the world, point out that
those who did least to cause the climate
crisis are suffering the most.
[40] “Our results highlight a severe
threat to the safety of young
generations and call for drastic emission
reductions to safeguard their future,”
said Prof Wim Thiery, at Vrije
[45] Universiteit Brussel in Belgium and who
led the research. He said people under
40 today were set to live
“unprecedented” lives, ie suffering
heatwaves, droughts, floods and crop
[50] failures that would have been virtually
impossible – 0.01% chance – without
global heating
Dr Katja Frieler, at the Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research in
[55] Germany and part of the study team,
said: “The good news is we can take
much of the climate burden from our
children’s shoulders if we limit warming
to 1.5C by phasing out fossil fuel use.
[60] This is a huge opportunity.”
Leo Hickman, editor of Carbon
Brief, said: “These new findings
reinforce our 2019 analysis which
showed that today’s children will need
[65] to emit eight times less CO2 over the
course of their lifetime than their
grandparents, if global warming is to be
kept below 1.5C. Climate change is
already exacerbating many injustices,
[70] but the intergenerational injustice of
climate change is particularly stark.”
The research, published in the
journal Science, combined extreme
event projections from sophisticated
[75] computer climate models, detailed
population and life expectancy data,
and global temperature trajectories
from the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change.
[80] The scientists said the increases
in climate impacts calculated for today’s
young people were likely to be
underestimates, as multiple extremes
within a year had to be grouped
together and the greater intensity of
[85] events was not accounted for.
There was significant regional
variation in the results. For example,
the 53 million children born in Europe
and central Asia between 2016 and
[90] 2020 will experience about four times
more extreme events in their lifetimes
under current emissions pledges, but
the 172 million children of the same age
in sub-Saharan Africa face 5.7 times
[95] more extreme events.
“This highlights a disproportionate
climate change burden for young
generations in the global south,” the
researchers said.
[100] Dohyeon Kim, an activist from
South Korea who took part in the global
climate strike on Friday, said:
“Countries of the global north need to
push governments to put justice and
[105] equity at the heart of climate action,
both in terms of climate [aid] and
setting more ambitious pledges that
take into consideration historical
responsibilities.”
[110] The analysis found that only those
aged under 40 years today will live to
see the consequences of the choices
made on emissions cuts. Those who are
older will have died before the impacts
[115] of those choices become apparent in the
world.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ 2021/sep/27/
“‘This highlights a disproportionate climate change burden for young generations in the global south,’ the researchers said.” (lines 97-100) is an example of
